Price Movements of ECs
By PEARL LIM
In this article, I examine the price trends of executive condominiums (ECs). I trust after the active discussion about ECs in the recent months, this type of housing requires no further introduction from me.
Using caveats lodged with Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), as of 24 May 2013, (please note that some buyers may not lodge caveats, thus the data analysed here is not an exhaustive list of all transactions), I examine
- the launch price versus resale price of specific ECs project
- the price change per square foot (psf) of a specific unit from developer’s sale till resale
- the price change (psf) of a specific unit from resale till resale
Launch Price and Resale Price For Each Project
In Table 1, I present the median price per square foot ($ psf) at launch compared to resale for 40 EC developments. In addition, I compute the percentage change in the median price at launch compared to the resale price. Finally, I show the price range at launch and at resale.
Table 1: Launch Price vs. Resale Price of ECs
|Project Name||Location||Year of Completion||Privatised?||Median Price at Launch* ($ psf)||Median Resale** Price ($ psf)||% Change||Price Range at Launch ($ psf)||Resale Price Range ($ psf)|
|Simei Green Condominium||Tampines||1999||Yes||422||579||37.20||301-472||264-945|
|Windermere||Choa Chu Kang||1999||Yes||451||569.5||26.27||329-498||272-707|
|The Floravale||Jurong West||2000||Yes||371||577||55.53||247-419||227-817|
|Yew Mei Green||Choa Chu Kang||2000||Yes||429||589.5||37.41||308-844||280-787|
|The Dew||Bukit Batok||2003||No||387.5||726.5||87.48||288-430||309-937|
|The Eden At Tampines||Tampines||2003||Yes||406||695||71.18||323-461||342-937|
|Nuovo||Ang Mo Kio||2004||No||402||759.5||88.93||307-512||396-1054|
|The Esparis||Pasir Ris||2005||No||386||658||70.47||316-403||390-815|
|The Quintet||Choa Chu Kang||2006||No||378||709||87.57||242-410||420-904|
|Arc At Tampines||Tampines||Uncompleted||No||737||554-875|
|Blossom Residences||Bukit Panjang||Uncompleted||No||704||536-785|
|The Rainforest||Choa Chu Kang||Uncompleted||No||754.5||523-835|
|The Tampines Trilliant||Tampines||Uncompleted||No||803||551-888|
Source: URA Realis
* The price data for launch is based on caveats with contract dates from Oct’ 1996 – 10 May 2013.
** The price data for resale is based on caveats with contract dates from July 2000- 9 May 2013.
Because of the minimum occupation period (MOP) of 5 years, for the uncompleted projects they are not eligible to be sold on the market yet.
Turning our attention to those which can be resold, we see that for all, except Westmere, the median change has been positive with the lowest gain at 21.89% for Chestervale. The winner is Bishan Loft with a more than 100% median price increase at 119%. 13 out of the 23 projects saw a median price jump of over 50%.
On a resale psf basis only 2 projects breached the $1000 mark, these are Bishan Loft and Nuovo. For the latter, so far, only 1 unit was sold at over $1000 psf, and the transaction was in the 2nd quarter of this year.
Launch Price (psf) and Resale Price (psf) For Each Unit
Here, I track the same unit over time to see the change in price (psf) from the developer’s sale to when it is resold.
In Table 2, I present for each project the percentage of units which price (psf) at resale is less than its price at the developer’s sale. 13 projects actually have over 10% of resale transactions concluded at a loss, but only 3 projects (Eastvale, Simei Green Condominium and Westmere) have over 50% of capital-losing transactions. For Eastvale, due to the small sample size of 7, the results could be erroneous.
The greatest capital-losing transaction is 44.4% for a unit at Chestervale. The honour of the greatest capital gain goes to Park Green where a unit was sold at 199.6% above its price (psf) at launch. Bishan Loft takes second place.
For the lowest 25% (25th percentile) of price change units at 13 developments register capital losses. This negative number falls to 3 (Eastvale, Simei Green Condominium and Westmere) at the 50th percentile. In fact 12 developments see over 50% of capital gain at this level.
In short, many owners make capital gains when reselling their ECs after buying from the developers.
Table 2: Change in Price (psf) (From Launch to Resale)
|Project Name||Sample Size (No of Units)||% of Units Sold at a Loss||Lowest (%)||Highest (%)||25th Percentile (%)||Median (%)|
|Simei Green Condominium||223||53.8||-26.0||116.4||-15.5||-6.1|
|The Eden At Tampines||98||2.0||-11.8||137.0||57.3||72.8|
|Yew Mei Green||226||41.6||-29.6||91.0||-17.6||34.2|
Source: URA Realis
Resale Price (psf) and Resale Price (psf) For Each Unit
Finally I look at the price differential of a resale unit when it is sold again.
The data suggests that buyers can still make capital gain when they buy a resale unit and sell it again.
Indeed at 25th percentile all transactions make positive gains. At the 50th percentile,, like for the launch to resale transactions, 12 developments have over 50% price increase.
Table 3: Change in Price (From Resale to Resale)
|Project Name||Sample Size* (No of Units)||% of Units Sold at a Loss||Lowest (%)||Highest (%)||25th Percentile (%)||Median (%)|
|Simei Green Condominium||101||1.0||-1.6||153.7||22.8||89.8|
|The Eden At Tampines||10||0.0||23.8||34.7||24.4||26.8|
|Yew Mei Green||49||2.0||-3.5||116.0||58.0||77.3|
Source: URA Realis
*The units used here also include those same units that are resold again. For eg. Unit A is resold in Oct 2004 and then resold again in Jan 2006, so we consider this as 2 samples.
This article is done under time constraint and does not claim to be an expert’s analysis of the EC market, instead it hopes to contribute some small insights into the discussion about ECs. Any feedback and comments are welcome.
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