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Price Movements of ECs

by • May 29, 2013 • Research and AnalysisComments (0)54991

Price Movements of ECs

By PEARL LIM

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In this article, I examine the price trends of executive condominiums (ECs). I trust after the active discussion about ECs in the recent months, this type of housing requires no further introduction from me.

Using caveats lodged with Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), as of 24 May 2013, (please note that some buyers may not lodge caveats, thus the data analysed here is not an exhaustive list of all transactions), I examine

  1. the launch price versus resale price of specific ECs project
  2. the price change per square foot (psf) of a specific unit from developer’s sale till resale
  3. the price change (psf) of a specific unit from resale till resale

Launch Price and Resale Price For Each Project

In Table 1, I present the median price per square foot ($ psf) at launch compared to resale for 40 EC developments. In addition, I compute the percentage change in the median price at launch compared to the resale price. Finally, I show the price range at launch and at resale.

Table 1: Launch Price vs. Resale Price of ECs

Project Name Location Year of Completion Privatised? Median Price at Launch* ($ psf) Median Resale** Price ($ psf) % Change Price Range at Launch ($ psf) Resale Price Range ($ psf)
Chestervale Bukit Panjang 1999 Yes 434 529 21.89 314-473 341-429
Eastvale Pasir Ris 1999 Yes 405 617 52.35 341-429 304-965
Pinevale Tampines 1999 Yes 459 586 27.67 330-529 288-964
Simei Green Condominium Tampines 1999 Yes 422 579 37.20 301-472 264-945
Westmere Jurong East 1999 Yes 397 382 -3.78 370-443 292-935
Windermere Choa Chu Kang 1999 Yes 451 569.5 26.27 329-498 272-707
Northoaks Woodlands 2000 Yes 397 587 47.86 289-461 230-806
Summerdale Jurong West 2000 Yes 372 590 58.60 284-451 234-808
The Floravale Jurong West 2000 Yes 371 577 55.53 247-419 227-817
The Florida Hougang 2000 Yes 436 624.5 43.23 351-521 301-843
The Rivervale Sengkang 2000 Yes 449 638 42.09 287-556 278-829
Woodsvale Woodlands 2000 Yes 380 566 48.95 290-424 238-749
Yew Mei Green Choa Chu Kang 2000 Yes 429 589.5 37.41 308-844 280-787
Bishan Loft Bishan 2003 No 418.5 916.5 119.00 379-491 394-1174
Lilydale Yishun 2003 Yes 367.5 652.5 77.55 239-420 310-774
The Dew Bukit Batok 2003 No 387.5 726.5 87.48 288-430 309-937
The Eden At Tampines Tampines 2003 Yes 406 695 71.18 323-461 342-937
Nuovo Ang Mo Kio 2004 No 402 759.5 88.93 307-512 396-1054
Park Green Sengkang 2004 No 368 691 87.77 268-416 484-892
The Esparis Pasir Ris 2005 No 386 658 70.47 316-403 390-815
Whitewater Pasir Ris 2005 No 373 658 76.41 313-423 322-908
The Quintet Choa Chu Kang 2006 No 378 709 87.57 242-410 420-904
La Casa Woodlands 2008 No 393 778 97.96 340-534 458-906
1 Canberra Yishun Uncompleted No 715 550-804
Arc At Tampines Tampines Uncompleted No 737 554-875
Austville Residences Sengkang Uncompleted No 715 585-779
Belysa Pasir Ris Uncompleted No 696 496-780
Blossom Residences Bukit Panjang Uncompleted No 704 536-785
Citylife@Tampines Tampines Uncompleted No 811.5 499-925
Esparina Residences Sengkang Uncompleted No 762 503-864
Heron Bay Hougang Uncompleted No 740 612-809
Prive Punggol Uncompleted No 697 502-779
Riverparc Residence Punggol Uncompleted No 689 462-772
The Canopy Yishun Uncompleted No 657 530-738
The Rainforest Choa Chu Kang Uncompleted No 754.5 523-835
The Tampines Trilliant Tampines Uncompleted No 803 551-888
The Topiary Sengkang Uncompleted No 735 600-809
Twin Waterfalls Punggol Uncompleted No 725.5 496-817
Waterbay Punggol Uncompleted No 746 538-797
Watercolours Pasir Ris Uncompleted No 733.5 581-802

 

Source: URA Realis
* The price data for launch is based on caveats with contract dates from Oct’ 1996 – 10 May 2013.
** The price data for resale is based on caveats with contract dates from July 2000- 9 May 2013.

Because of the minimum occupation period (MOP) of 5 years, for the uncompleted projects they are not eligible to be sold on the market yet.

Turning our attention to those which can be resold, we see that for all, except Westmere, the median change has been positive with the lowest gain at 21.89% for Chestervale. The winner is Bishan Loft with a more than 100% median price increase at 119%. 13 out of the 23 projects saw a median price jump of over 50%.

On a resale psf basis only 2 projects breached the $1000 mark, these are Bishan Loft and Nuovo. For the latter, so far, only 1 unit was sold at over $1000 psf, and the transaction was in the 2nd quarter of this year.

Launch Price (psf) and Resale Price (psf) For Each Unit

Here, I track the same unit over time to see the change in price (psf) from the developer’s sale to when it is resold.

In Table 2, I present for each project the percentage of units which price (psf) at resale is less than its price at the developer’s sale. 13 projects actually have over 10% of resale transactions concluded at a loss, but only 3 projects (Eastvale, Simei Green Condominium and Westmere) have over 50% of capital-losing transactions. For Eastvale, due to the small sample size of 7, the results could be erroneous.

The greatest capital-losing transaction is 44.4% for a unit at Chestervale. The honour of the greatest capital gain goes to Park Green where a unit was sold at 199.6% above its price (psf) at launch. Bishan Loft takes second place.

For the lowest 25% (25th percentile) of price change units at 13 developments register capital losses. This negative number falls to 3 (Eastvale, Simei Green Condominium and Westmere) at the 50th percentile. In fact 12 developments see over 50% of capital gain at this level.

In short, many owners make capital gains when reselling their ECs after buying from the developers.

Table 2: Change in Price (psf) (From Launch to Resale)

Project Name Sample Size (No of Units) % of Units Sold at a Loss Lowest (%) Highest (%) 25th Percentile (%) Median (%)
Bishan Loft 49 0.0 1.8 179.7 90.2 108.1
Chestervale 101 34.7 -44.4 82.0 -26.7 21.6
Eastvale 7 57.1 -11.1 122.7 -8.5 -1.2
La Casa 24 4.2 75.5 138.1 96.5 102.9
Lilydale 102 2.0 -16.2 122.9 64.4 77.4
Northoaks 118 31.4 -27.7 101.9 -16.1 40.3
Nuovo 103 0.0 1.4 148.7 74.4 89.7
Park Green 110 0.0 46.7 199.6 68.3 81.9
Pinevale 84 41.7 -31.1 114.7 -22.6 27.0
Simei Green Condominium 223 53.8 -26.0 116.4 -15.5 -6.1
Summerdale 64 29.7 -32.0 111.5 -11.3 51.6
The Dew 38 0.0 1.3 141.3 78.0 88.4
The Eden At Tampines 98 2.0 -11.8 137.0 57.3 72.8
The Esparis 130 0.0 0.0 125.9 65.8 71.1
The Floravale 207 26.1 -26.2 113.8 -4.6 57.7
The Florida 132 30.3 -29.7 92.0 -18.3 42.7
The Quintet 123 0.0 48.8 140.4 82.4 89.3
The Rivervale 157 32.5 -29.4 92.2 -18.9 41.6
Westmere 15 66.7 -20.3 93.0 -12.9 -8.7
Whitewater 161 0.0 38.1 142.8 62.8 75.4
Windermere 96 32.3 -36.2 69.2 -26.1 25.7
Woodsvale 129 31.0 -30.3 93.6 -12.7 49.4
Yew Mei Green 226 41.6 -29.6 91.0 -17.6 34.2

Source: URA Realis

Resale Price (psf) and Resale Price (psf) For Each Unit

Finally I look at the price differential of a resale unit when it is sold again.

The data suggests that buyers can still make capital gain when they buy a resale unit and sell it again.

Indeed at 25th percentile all transactions make positive gains. At the 50th percentile,, like for the launch to resale transactions, 12 developments have over 50% price increase.

Table 3: Change in Price (From Resale to Resale)

Project Name Sample Size* (No of Units) % of Units Sold at a Loss Lowest (%) Highest (%) 25th Percentile (%) Median (%)
Bishan Loft 10 0.0 18.9 127.2 22.9 40.7
Chestervale 12 0.0 19.8 125.9 47.5 77.7
Eastvale 33 0.0 0.6 120.3 75.5 97.1
La Casa 0
Lilydale 12 0.0 9.0 32.7 17.7 26.4
Northoaks 100 0.0 4.3 158.3 27.5 88.9
Nuovo 20 0.0 13.8 47.0 19.1 22.2
Park Green 20 0.0 17.1 44.3 21.2 26.4
Pinevale 12 0.0 12.5 100.6 16.0 28.0
Simei Green Condominium 101 1.0 -1.6 153.7 22.8 89.8
Summerdale 38 0.0 13.6 157.3 91.2 102.1
The Dew 0
The Eden At Tampines 10 0.0 23.8 34.7 24.4 26.8
The Esparis 26 0.0 11.4 71.5 17.4 22.2
The Floravale 75 1.3 -9.7 141.0 23.6 54.2
The Florida 47 4.3 -8.0 143.4 32.6 92.8
The Quintet 0
The Rivervale 36 5.6 -27.0 115.0 32.0 77.4
Westmere 16 0.0 3.0 157.2 106.5 114.7
Whitewater 42 0.0 11.6 47.3 16.8 27.2
Windermere 14 7.1 -4.5 116.2 18.2 85.4
Woodsvale 83 0.0 13.1 133.1 64.1 78.2
Yew Mei Green 49 2.0 -3.5 116.0 58.0 77.3

Source: URA Realis
*The units used here also include those same units that are resold again. For eg. Unit A is resold in Oct 2004 and then resold again in Jan 2006, so we consider this as 2 samples.

Conclusion

This article is done under time constraint and does not claim to be an expert’s analysis of the EC market, instead it hopes to contribute some small insights into the discussion about ECs. Any feedback and comments are welcome.

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